China's Increasing Military Spending

The Power of the People's Republic of China by the DoD

much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, in particular in the area of its expanding military power and how that power might be used.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning shortduration, high intensity conflicts along its periphery against high-tech adversaries – an approach that China refers to as preparing for “local wars under conditions of informatization.” China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance remains limited but, as noted in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, it “has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages.”

China's military spending has increased over 11% since last year, which out paced China's GDP increase of 9% from last year. China declared it spent around 45 billion dollars but the Pentagon believes the figure should be somewhere between 98 billion and 140 billion dollars. China has been upgrading several branches of it's military with no clear stated purpose from the government. So it is difficult for the Pentagon to speculate what China's overall goals are. However, one thing is clear. China is modernizing it's military in preparation for possible conflict with the US.

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The Pentagon states that the number 1 concern for China is preservation of communist rule. The Chinese government has staked it's survival on economic progress. China imports 70% of it's energy needs from such countries as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola and a few others. So therefore China needs to protect those critical sea lane where it imports it's oil to sustain it's economy. However at the present time China is unable to project it's military power past it's maritime borders.

Taiwan featured prominently in the Pentagon report. It says China will try to bring Taiwan under Beijing's influence through economic, political coercion and through the threat of military action. Although military action is possible it presents its own problems for the Chinese government. One a full scale invasion of islands is a tricky proposition. Two the Chines government believes it will have to deal with the US if it attacks Taiwan. And finally the war may undermine the communist government if it fails. However thats not to say China won't try a lighting fast attack with a well prepared force or a surprise attack with just overwhelming numbers.

At the moment it appears that China is only pursuing defensive measures for the mainland. It's military doctrine states that the military may only attack if China's sovereignty has been threatened. But, that may include political and economic threats to China's sovereignty. Also, China has a history of pre-emptive attacks, which it considers as defensive in nature, such as North Korea 1950, India 1962, Soviet Union 1969 and Vietnam 1979.

In short, The Pentagon considers the Chinese military to be able to challenge US superiority in about 20 years or so.