Hayden: Mexico violence threat to US only second to al Qaida

Thanks to #1 Infidel blogging about the violence south of the border I can't say that this is a surprise. I half jokingly tell my friends and family I would go vacationing in Iraq before going to Mexico. H/T Jane Fox News

Iran, North Korea and Al Qaeda are still in, but Iraq is out of the list of top 10 national security threats the United States is likely to face in the coming year.

As Leon Panetta faces a Senate confirmation hearing this week to be the next CIA director, outgoing CIA Director Michael Hayden says several regions and disputes could create serious headaches for the intelligence community in 2009.[...]

1. Al Qaeda: "It is the organization that has the capacity to most threaten the physical safety of America and Americans. So it remains job No. 1. And we have talked about some successes and so on, but it is resilient, and therefore we have to continue to keep an eye on Al Qaeda," he said.

2. Violence in Mexico: "Our good friend and neighbor Mexico had this horrible surge in violence that may cause -- in fact has caused -- us to talk with our Mexican friends, in more meaningful and deeper ways, to discover ways that we can cooperate against what we now view to be, and has always been, a common problem. ...

"What you've got is President Calderon, very heroically, taking on drug cartels that I think everyone agrees threaten certainly the well-being of the Mexican people and the Mexican state, and taking them on in a very, very progressive way. Now, it is not quite the same thing as Colombia, where you had a politically motivated movement, the FARC, merging with narcotics organizations. Here it is largely in the business of crime but the effects could be just as dangerous, certainly to the well-being of the Mexican people."

3. Iran's nuclear program: "I included Iran, in terms of as they move forward in their own decision-making process, as they continue to churn out LEU, low enriched uranium, they do it at great cost, diplomatically and economically with regard to sanctions. They seem to be doing it with a purpose. As that quantity of that stockpile grows, you would think that at some point in that process, they are going to have to make a decision as to what it is they are going to do with it. So that is something we have to keep a close eye on as well."

4. Europe and the War on Terror: Hayden said he believes that real substantive issues separate the U.S. and Europe in executing the War on Terror. He said "growing daylight" separates the allies and it's not a question of "personalities."

5. Instability caused by the low price of oil: "The price of oil is another thing that is not quite a crisis, but it is destabilizing," he said. "As oil goes under about $40 a barrel, it probably doesn't have a big impact in Russia, which has a large (economy) and frankly invested pretty wisely. I'm not sure that it doesn't have more of an impact in Iran and in Venezuela. When (global) oil is about $40 a barrel, their heavy crude is about $30 a barrel. And that really creates stresses inside the (Hugo) Chavez regime. So again, these are not threats, but they will create torque, and may then suggest some instability."

The next 5 in Hayden's list include Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, China, and the Middle East.